Good Turns for the Economy?
At look at how the Fed uses its balance sheet to ease and tighten policy After lowering short term interest rates to zero during the financial crisis, the Fed expanded its balance sheet by buying...
Will Politics Steamroll Monetary Policy?
Politics, partisanship and Fed independence President Trump has made a habit of publicly lambasting the Fed and making bombastic recommendations for monetary policy. In addition, pending background...
Will the US get the LFP Engine Moving Again?
The trends and drivers of US Labor Force Participation say ‘maybe.’ Nearly all countries are seeing population growth slow and populations age reflecting declining birth rates and longer life...
Recession watch: Will what we don’t know hurt us?
So far, so good for 2019. But questions lurk. Nearly all private sector forecasters and policy makers are forecasting a slowing in economic growth in the US and elsewhere in 2019. The expected slower...
Are Government Statistics Outdated
Public property: the central role of government information As we recover from the longest federal government shutdown in history and look at the possibility of another one, it is a good time to...
Are the Markets Getting Comfortable with Rising Deficits?
Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) pulls up a chair The US and other advanced economies have seen steadily rising government deficits and debt as a percent of GDP in recent decades, a development that no...
Five Takes on the Market
Taking stock: Five key financial market developments in 2018 Financial market developments in 2018 surprised in a number of ways. Toward the end of the year we learned that the stock market is still...
Do Snails Pace Auto Sales Mean the Economy is Slowing?
A maturing auto cycle signals an increasingly precarious outlook The auto sector is one of the most interest-sensitive sectors of the domestic economy, thereby amplifying business cycles around...
When will Climate Change Cost More than Fixing It?
The macroeconomic impact is still moderate but quickly intensifying A recent report issued by the Trump Administration highlights the intensifying disruption to human and economic activity from...
Will the Fed Stick a Soft Landing?
Navigating the economic expansion may get trickier in 2019 The news flow on the US economy has been very good. The latest GDP report showed growth on track to achieve 3.0% in 2018 underpinned by a...