Long shadow on Puerto Rico’s future?
The lasting mark Hurricane Maria’s devastation may leave on the island As Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands grapple with the aftermath of the third and most destructive hurricane this season, we...
Will the Economy Go Under Too?
Second to a humanitarian crisis, hurricanes are a balance-sheet shock As we assess the aftermath of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, the main economic and political question revolves around who will bear...
So why aren’t the fat cats spending?
Boom and bust hits a forecasting variable economists used to bank on Consumer net worth is now a standard input to macroeconomic forecasting models, and recent record highs have added to policy makers...
Low inflation: A sign of fading consumer demand?
The correlations between weakness in consumer spending and inflation Are the recent low inflation readings a signal of weakening consumer demand or a transitory development? The answer is key for...
Blue Skies for Consumers Clouds for Fed?
Why lower housing inflation may also lock in low interest rates Housing is one of the largest items in consumer budgets, and it is also therefore a lynchpin in measures of consumer inflation. Housing...
Low Inflation: The Good and Bad
Fewer inflation swings worldwide. But domestic monetary policy may sway it less. Executive Summary: While policy makers at the fed were in general agreement when they raised rates in June, there is...
Are We at Full Employment?
The economy is sending mixed messages Executive Summary: The conclusion that the economy is at or close to full employment is central to the Fed’s decision to accelerate the pace of interest rate...
Taking the punchbowl away from the party?
Why the Fed is poised to raise interest rates Executive Summary: The Federal Reserve looks poised to raise rates in June. Their decision is based on the fact that, despite relatively sluggish GDP...
Without the Melting Pot will the Regions Economy Melt Down?
Why the NY-NJ metropolitan area fears curbs on immigration and international visitors Executive summary: Nowhere is the economic threat of restrictions on immigration and the international flow of...
Will Washington Shut the Door on Growth?
The prospects for immigration policy on the economy Executive Summary: The Trump Administration is seeking to implement a number of policies that would restrict authorized and unauthorized immigration...