Do Libor Spikes Mean the Economy is Stalling?
Why rising short-term borrowing costs are a constraint not a crisis The recent jump in Libor borrowing rates has garnered some attention given the role spiking Libor rates played as an early warning...
How high could yields go?
It’s a bubble watch on bond yields In this post we take a look at how far the recent rise in bond yields might go and conclude somewhat surprisingly that the yield on the 10-year Treasury may not rise...
Inflationary spiral: Lemons or lemonade?
Fears of rising inflation are rattling the markets. How real are they? Markets have had a rambunctious start to the year. One of the narratives that has spread from the financial press that obsesses...
Still expecting treats, Wall Street?
Markets grapple with the uncertainty of a deteriorating fiscal outlook In a blog post a few weeks ago we wondered how long the stock market could continue to reach new highs against a backdrop of...
It was a solid pickup in 2017
… But surprisingly, this time the US consumer was not responsible. The recent GDP report for Q4 2017 confirmed a solid growth performance that was an improvement on 2016 and in line with some of the...
Is This Party Over?
Examining the risks of the having-your-cake-and-eating-it-too financial markets The psychology of markets for risky assets of late has been to view everything through rose colored-glasses. One rosy...
Getting by without a Little Help from our Friends?
How trade conflicts might dampen economic momentum The US economy has been running hot. The latest confirmation came from a May employment report that showed the unemployment rate at the lowest level...
Invasion of the Disruptors!
Retail battles to keep up with a breathtaking pace of change In a recent blog we wrote about some of the technological and global drivers of the ongoing disruption and transformation of the retail...
A New Tax Diet for Blue States
Photo credit: Claudia Totir (gettyimages) Eliminating SALT deductions may make tax cuts less tasty for the coasts The House and Senate have each passed a version of legislation that will cut taxes by...
Retail apocalypse?
Record closings and bankruptcies may signal a changed environment This year has been dubbed the retail apocalypse by many analysts and observers owing to record numbers of store and mall closings and...