Are Consumers Seeing Something Wall Street Isn’t
What spending may be saying about stock market valuation
The stock market continues to dance near all-time highs producing record highs in household balance sheets. Yet growth in consumer spending...
Cyclical Stability Structural Headwinds
Photo credit: YUBO (gettyimages) A steady economic performer confronts heavy weather. The New York metropolitan area (NYMA) is in a relatively stable and solid state from a business cycle perspective...
Recession Buffer?
Yes. But an aging population may make a recovery harder too. The average age of the US population has been rising rapidly in recent decades on the back of declining birth rates and increased life...
New Directions for Monetary Policy?
Politics and a cooling economy create a challenging environment. Trump’s attacks on the Federal Reserve have intensified in recent months as the economy has showed signs of cooling. The Fed has...
Is the Housing Market Flashing Red?
Yes, but it’s unlikely to be the primary catalyst for a recession. Housing is one of the most cyclical sectors in the economy. It has become a drag on GDP growth an average of three calendar quarters...
Can Central Banks Keep Up the Heavy Lifting?
Balancing modern currencies and global monetary policies In his testimony last week Fed Chair Jerome Powell was asked about his views on the value of returning to the gold standard, as well as his...
What Face will the Millennial Gen Put on the Economy?
Exploring a portrait of increased diversity and economic challenge The Millennial Generation bears arguably the most lasting imprint of the Great Recession of any generation. They are currently aged...
Will Trade Wars Cloud the Economy?
The risk of a recession is elevated, but it’s not a forgone conclusion With the breakdown in negotiations between the US and China in recent weeks, the US trade war shows no signs of resolution...
Rising Debt: Is it Masking a Generational Shift?
Younger households are borrowing less. Why? Real household debt per capita started growing again in 2014 after roughly seven years of decline as many homeowners either defaulted on or paid down...
Big Piece in the Global Slowdown Puzzle
Signals that momentum now moves East to West Lackluster economic data continues to flow in from around the world, and while US Q4 GDP registered a solid performance there are indications global...